scholarly journals Dynamics and Prediction of a Mesoscale Extreme Rain Event in the Baiu Front over Kyushu, Japan

1998 ◽  
Vol 126 (6) ◽  
pp. 1608-1629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel E. Davidson ◽  
Kazuo Kurihara ◽  
Teruyuki Kato ◽  
Graham Mills ◽  
Kamal Puri
Keyword(s):  
2019 ◽  
Vol 146 (726) ◽  
pp. 86-104
Author(s):  
Florent Beucher ◽  
Jean‐Philippe Lafore ◽  
Nicolas Chapelon
Keyword(s):  

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachery R. Staley ◽  
Jun Dennis Chuong ◽  
Stephen J. Hill ◽  
Josey Grabuski ◽  
Shadi Shokralla ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 636-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Andersen ◽  
A. C. Erichsen ◽  
O. Mark ◽  
H.-J. Albrechtsen

Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CSO) to bathing water where an ironman competition later took place. Two dynamic models, (1) a drainage model and (2) a 3D hydrodynamic model, estimated the dilution of waste water from source to recipient. The drainage model estimated that 2.6% of waste water was left in the system before CSO and the hydrodynamic model estimated that 4.8% of the recipient bathing water came from the CSO, so on average there was 0.13% of waste water in the bathing water during the ironman competition. The total estimated incidence rate from a conservative estimate of the pathogenic load of five reference pathogens was 42%, comparable to 55% in an epidemiological study of the case. The combination of applying dynamic models and exposure data led to an improved QMRA that included an estimate of the dilution factor. This approach has not been described previously.


2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyan Bao ◽  
Jutta Niggemann ◽  
Dekun Huang ◽  
Thorsten Dittmar ◽  
Shuh‐Ji Kao

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 216
Author(s):  
Marie-Dominique Leroux ◽  
Mai C. Nguyen-Hankinson ◽  
Noel E. Davidson ◽  
Jeffrey Callaghan ◽  
Kevin Tory ◽  
...  

Tropical cyclone (TC) Oswald made landfall over north-east Australia as a minimal or Category 1 TC on the Australian scale on 21 January 2013. As it moved southward, it intensified over land and produced extreme rainfall for nearly 7 days. Tornadoes were reported and confirmed. Tragically, seven people died and insurance estimates were ~$1 billion. It is demonstrated that the event was associated with an interaction between the ex-Oswald circulation and an amplifying Rossby wave, which propagated north-eastward from high latitudes. Diagnoses showed that as the wave amplified and broke, a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly (PVA) extended to mid-levels, moved equatorward, merged with or axisymmetrised the ex-Oswald circulation through mid-levels. Backward trajectories from locations regularly scattered within the mid-level circulation illustrated that the storm transitioned from an isolated vortex into a circulation which was strongly influenced by its environment for at least 5 days. During this interaction, PV was advected from the environment towards the storm through mid-levels. The heavy rain coincided with the commencement and maintenance of this PV injection. The PV injection is quantified and shown to be consistent with PV advection by the mean radial flow. In addition, eddy angular momentum convergence in the mid- to upper levels coincided with an intensification of the circulation through this region. This was first related to outward transport of anticyclonic momentum by the asymmetric outflow at upper levels, followed by inward transport of cyclonic momentum by the asymmetric inflow. It is shown that the environmental interaction had an impact on vortex structure changes, rainfall and tornado development. We propose that the environmental processes influenced the ascent within the storm (1) via differential vorticity advection and baroclinic forcing, as the mid- to upper level PVA approached the circulation and (2) by low- to mid-level warm air advection.


2017 ◽  
Vol 143 (704) ◽  
pp. 1442-1458 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. N. Krishnamurti ◽  
S. Dubey ◽  
V. Kumar ◽  
R. Deepa ◽  
A. Bhardwaj

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 860-872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shakti P. C. ◽  
◽  
Tsuyoshi Nakatani ◽  
Ryohei Misumi

The heavy rainfall event that occurred on 5–6 July 2017 in Northern Kyushu, Japan, caused extensive flooding across several mountainous river basins and resulted in fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure along those rivers. For the periods before and during the extreme event, there are no hydrological observations for many of the flooded river basins, most of which are small and located in mountainous regions. We used the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model, a physically based model, to acquire more detailed information about the hydrological processes in the flood-affected ungauged mountain basins. We calibrated the GSSHA model using data from an adjacent gauged river basin, and then applied it to several small ungauged basins without changing the parameters of the model. We simulated the gridded flow and generated a map of the possible maximum flood depth across the basins. By comparing the extent of flood-affected areas from the model with data of the Japanese Geospatial Information Authority (GSI), we found that the maximum flood inundation areas of the river networks estimated by the GSSHA model are sometimes less than those estimated by the GSI, as the influence of landslides and erosion was not considered in the modeling. The model accuracy could be improved by taking these factors into account, although this task would be challenging. The results indicated that simulations of flood inundation in ungauged mountain river basins could contribute to disaster management during extreme rain events.


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